Will Computing Ever Be As Invisible As Electricity
Many years ago, I read an article that made a big impression on me. It compared the adoption of information technology to the adoption of electricity. The article noted that, in the late 19th century, when electricity was a novelty, it was a quirky, visible, high maintenance presence in the lives of those adventurous enough to embrace it. When electric motors were first introduced in the household, they were bulky units that most often sat on a big stand in the front hall. The motors powered a belt that turned a shaft mounted over head. Appliances like washing machines were also connected to the shaft by belts. The system was inherited from manufacturing operations that had been powered by water wheels prior to electricity. The proud owners of these early systems would show them off to all their friends, but they also had to be willing to get their hands dirty greasing the shaft, replacing the belts and rebuilding the motors.
The author of the article argued that the information technology business was then in the same stage of development. [I should be pointing to the article, but I don’t remember its title, author or publication - so my web search did not find it.]
I do remember, however, thinking that the article was on to something. Information technology was, at the time, proudly displayed in a glass houses with raised floors. Anyone brave enough to use it in their daily lives had to be willing to maintain it themselves. I also felt certain that there would be a day when, it would be come as invisible to us as electricity. We would stop proudly displaying the infrastructure of IT, and would eventually be blissfully ignorant of how it worked and even who provided the basic infrastructure. How many of us know which national conglomerate owns the local utility that delivers the amps to our home?
I have to admit, however, that at the time, I had no clue how this was going to happen. I suppose I vaguely thought personal computers would get smaller and cheaper, and software would get easier to use, but I was stuck in the then obvious model, in the same way that early users of electricity were stuck in the model of using shafts and belts to distribute electrical power.
I think we are now beginning to see just how the quirky, clumsy, high maintenance infrastructure of computing is going to disappear from our lives. Over the next few years, more and more of the services we expect from our computers will be delivered over the web. There are lots of reasons for this but the analogy to the early days of electricity, makes it clear that mass adoption of technology doesn’t happen until the consumer can be completely insulated from the complexity of its implementation.
Google’s success with search is an early indicator of this transition. They presented us with a very simple interface – type what you want in the box and get relevancy ranked links that may have the answer. None of us think much about the huge server infrastructure necessary to do this, algorithms that make it efficient, or the pipes that deliver the answer to your home or office.
Hotmail and Gmail are pure web services. There is slew of calendaring services and network web based file management services popping up. Google’s purchase of the web based word processor, Writely, suggests that word processing may not be far behind. There are also a slew of new services that are native to the web – services like Flickr and Del.icio.us, that are inherently collaborative - services that could not have been implemented as PC software. Some of these services are already accessible anywhere, anytime, on any device, the rest will be soon.
There is a long way to go before the web browser becomes the same reliable standardized interface that the electrical outlet is today. But it now seems possible that the ugly sausage factory of information technology could eventually disappear behind a browser. I cant’ wait.
March 20, 2006 11:44 AM, By Brad Burnham
Tags: userexperience utilitycomputing webservices
Comments (7)
I guess the triger to your vision will be democratisation of very high speed internet.
Posted by ouriel , March 22, 2006 06:20 AM
There are those “Born Digital”© and those not. (My son uses his "V-Cast" all the time, for the most basic of needs.) Convergence, like all major shifts, has been taking place for awhile (the last 3 decades). This generation has invisible technology. As video and mobile and everything converge, it will be pervasive and ubiquitous; we will be unaware. It is a part of the fabric, like electricity.
Brave New World? Maybe Brave New Generation, as globally there’s more transparency & democratisation than here in the USA, where we have fallen behind the curve.
Technology or Cultural shift? That is for the future to access. In the Arpanet (Advanced Research Projects Agency Network) days, there was no explaining where it went, so engineers used a cloud metaphor. That's where the invisibility is, in the cloud of the original Internet inventors.
Posted by Roger Sanford , March 22, 2006 03:45 PM
You're absolutely right, but the real keys are standardized descriptors AND cheap computing power. If the iron breaks, I get a new one and it works (while being better and less expensive than the last one). I don't need to think about the voltage etc... computers need to get this way - information has to be available without having to jump through hoops. If you want a song, why do you have to go to iTunes, Amazon, Rhaopsody, and finally buy it used? Because there is not a common music search. When information providers unite, information will be as common as electricity.
Posted by Peter Bowen , March 23, 2006 01:05 PM
The web as power outlet will require a monetization system similar to an electicity bill.
Ads work for search and other traffic generators. Subscriptions work for larger discrete applications. Commissions work for transactional applications. Premium Services work when users understand the company incurs a larger cost. But for the vast majority of Web 2.0 applications, a new model that treats the web like a utility is required. Are you ready to help build it?
Posted by Hans Omli , March 23, 2006 01:40 PM
Brad, you seem to be channeling David Gelernter. You might want to read his late-90's book "Machine Beauty" on aesthetics and technology, specifically on how technologies blend into environments (as opposed to just becoming accepted or commonplace).
Posted by michael , March 23, 2006 04:25 PM
I think you're talking about the article by Nicholas G. Carr, "IT Doesn't Matter" (2003).
Posted by Jeremy Higgs , March 27, 2006 08:56 AM
It is has already happened. At least for the younger generations.
My son is 4 years old. He already knows how to use a computer and loves to surf the itunes music store and a few 'approved' websites. Living in nyc occasionally my wifi network goes down due to interference. He just doesn't get why he can't access the store. The same thing happens when we travel with our laptop.
The concept of not having access to the Internet is one that he just doesn't get. It is the kids like this that will make computing invisible, because for them, it is.
Posted by Daniel Hallac , March 20, 2006 12:38 PM